Intense downpours like those in Texas are more frequent, but there’s no telling where they’ll happen

(8 Jul 2025)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hunt, Texas – 6 July 2025
1. Various of river, damaged trees and debris

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Fairview, North Carolina – 7 July 2025
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Ken Kunkel, Atmospheric scientist, NC State University: ++PARTIALLY COVERED++
“The cluster of thunderstorms that developed over the hill country of Texas and stayed in place for many hours drew moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico at this present time is warmer than normal. The likely reason it’s warmer than normal is that it reflects overall global warming."

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hunt, Texas – 6 July 2025
3. Various of people in a kayak passing submerged car by river

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Center Point, Texas – 5 July 2025
4. Various of fast-moving flood waters from Guadalupe River rushing over road in Texas, people looking at damage

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Fairview, North Carolina – 7 July 2025
5. SOUNDBITE (English) Ken Kunkel, Atmospheric scientist, NC State University: ++COVERED++
“The water gets warmer, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere above the water gets higher. And when that is drawn into a weather system, it’s simply additional fuel.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hunt, Texas – 6 July 2025
6. Mid of a submerged car
7. Various of river, damaged trees and debris

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Fairview, North Carolina – 7 July 2025
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Ken Kunkel, Atmospheric scientist, NC State University: ++COVERED++
"When we do these larger area analyses, we see that the most extreme rainfall events have increased in the Eastern US. This month it was the Texas Hill Country’s turn to get hit. Any particular area, maybe they didn’t get one of these over the last two or three decades. That doesn’t mean that they aren’t vulnerable to these. They got lucky, but some of these other areas did not.”

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Kerrville, Texas – 7 July 2025
9. Various of officials and volunteers clearing debris and looking for those missing
STORYLINE:
It’s not just Texas and North Carolina. Intense rain is falling more frequently in many areas of the U.S. — though where it occurs and whether it causes catastrophic flooding is largely a matter of chance, according to experts.

More than 100 people died in Texas Hill Country over the weekend after 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain fell in just hours. The deluge was driven by warm, moist air left over from Tropical Storm Barry and Hurricane Flossie that created conditions for repeated thunderstorms in the same location, said Texas Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.

Last year, Hurricane Helene dumped more than 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain on western North Carolina, triggering catastrophic flooding that washed away roads and homes, killing more than 100 people in that state alone. This week, flooding from the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal prompted dozens of water rescues in other parts of North Carolina. And this spring, record rainfall in Kentucky caused severe and deadly flooding.

Although it can be difficult to attribute a single weather event to climate change — and hilly or mountainous terrain worsen flooding — experts say a warming atmosphere and oceans due to the burning of fossil fuels make catastrophic storms more likely.

That’s because the atmosphere can hold 7% more water for every degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), creating a giant sponge of sorts that sucks up moisture from bodies of water and vegetation. The moisture later falls back to earth in increasingly intense, unpredictable and destructive downpours.

Years of drought also likely exacerbated the flooding.

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