(25 Sep 2025)
RESTRICTION SUMMARY:
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Washington – 17 September 2025
1. Mid of Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel sitting down for an interview with Associated Press reporter Fatima Hussein
2. SOUNDBITE (English) Phillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director:
"That the changes we’re seeing in our economy are really large. And so the reconciliation bill had large changes in taxes. It had large changes in funding for immigration and national security, had large changes in Medicaid and SNAP benefits, food stamps. There’s a large change in immigration, and there are large changes in tariffs going on. And all of that is playing out at the same time and affecting the economy, affecting the budget, affecting all of us as Americans. And that’s the challenge of doing analysis now is these massive changes, and how will they play out. And AP readers should be assured we are watching it in a nonpartisan, dispassionate way. We’re just trying to get it right and inform the Congress and the country. We have no political views. There’s no agenda here. It’s just to give our analysis."
3. SOUNDBITE (English) Fatima Hussein, The Associated Press:
"Looking at tariffs, to what degree does the CBO anticipate tariffs would add to inflation at a time when the Fed (Federal Reserve) is at this moment examining prices and whether or not to lower interest rates."
4. SOUNDBITE (English) Phillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director:
"In some sense, it’s a limited duration effect that as the tariffs go up and the prices go up with the tariffs, inflation will be higher, but then prices will get to a higher level and be stable. And then the inflationary impact will subside. So we think it’ll be about two years, roughly, of elevated inflation. And the Fed (Federal Reserve) has talked about that. They understand this as well. That they understand the inflationary impact of the tariffs will be there, but is not a permanent one. It’s a temporary factor."
5. Close of Swagel’s reflection on a table as he gestures with his hands
6. SOUNDBITE (English) Phillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director:
"So we calculated that over the ten-year horizon at which we provide budget information for the Congress, the tariffs will bring in an additional $3.3 trillion of revenue. And then having that deficit reduction means that interest payments will be lower. And that’s another deficit reduction of $700 billion. So the tariff revenue plus the interest payments averted come to $4 trillion over ten years of lower deficits. So it’s a huge impact. As I said before, there’s an impact on households, an impact on families and an impact on businesses. And that goes in the other direction of reducing economic growth. But the revenue will tend to reduce deficits and in some sense that will help the economy."
7. Various of Hussein asking a question as Swagel listens, SOUNDBITE (English) Fatima Hussein, The Associated Press:
"Given how politicized sized data collection has become, seeing how the White House and cabinet officials talk about the CBO specifically, sometimes they even bring your name up, seeing the firing of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) commissioner and… How do you think about these sort of criticisms and how do you maintain a working relationship with Congress and the White House?"
8. SOUNDBITE (English) Phillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director:
9. Wide of Swagel speaking with Hussein
10. SOUNDBITE (English) Phillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director:
11. Wide of Swagel speaking with Hussein
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